Queen's University

Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling

Map visualization from study: Analyzing the Potential Risk of Climate Change on Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario, Canada Using Time Series Remotely Sensed Temperature Data and Tick Population Modelling, by Queen's researcher DongMei Chen. Data represents the summed basic reproductive number for tick populations in southern Ontario from 2001 to 2014. The number of Lyme disease cases (Lyme borreliosis) in Ontario, Canada has increased over the last decade, and that figure is projected to continue to rise. The northern limit of Lyme disease cases has also been progressing northward from the northeastern United States into southeastern Ontario. Factors such as climate change, changes in host abundance, host and vector migration, or a combination of these factors likely contribute to the growing number of Lyme disease cases in eastern Ontario.

This study first determined areas of warming using time series remotely sensed temperature data within Ontario, then analyzed possible spatial-temporal changes in Lyme disease risk in eastern Ontario from 2000 to 2013 due to climate change using tick population modeling. (Read More)